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Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.