🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Made $436,000 on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be out of power by the month's conclusion increased in the period preceding former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member in December and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the afternoon of the prior Friday. However the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a rapid movement in positions just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," stated Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on recently seeks to ban public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Market Background Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to current affairs. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry. A company executive for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."